Prediction Markets Say Trump Is Almost Tied With Biden. Don’t Bet on It. – New York Magazine

Election prospects may be more distant than they appear. Photo: AFP via Getty Images

Financial markets are supposed to be great aggregators of dispersed information. No one individual may know everything about a company’s future performance, but because the stock market richly rewards people for being right and for knowing something other market participants do not, stock prices generally do a pretty good job of reflecting the information that’s out there about a company’s well-being.